农业保险理论研究述评及展望

农业保险问题一直是保险学和农业经济学领域关注的热点问题,国内外学者对此做了大量研究。国外文献研究了农业保险市场失灵、政府介入农业保险市场的原因和农业保险需求,国内文献主要研究了农业保险的政策属性、财政补贴、农业保险需求和供给。这表明农业保险研究仍局限于新古典经济学的研究范式,把农业保险组织视为黑箱。本文在梳理国内外文献的基础上提出了一个新的研究视角——组织视角,并构建了农业保险组织研究的理论框架。     

亚运会对广州服务贸易促进作用的理论机制

2010年广州亚运会的举办,将极大的促进广州服务贸易的发展,给广州带来巨大的经济效用.文章利用迈克尔·波特的竞争优势理论和需求贸易理论从生产要素、需求条件、相关与支持性产业、企业战略、结构及行业竞争、机遇和政府等方面对此作出理论分析,提出"亚运会影响下的广州服务贸易竞争力模型",在此基础上总结广州服务贸易发展现状,得到一些启示及发展对策.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

The demand for organic foods in the South of Italy: A discrete choice model

This paper analyses organic food consumer’s demand that can help advising on implementing organic food policies at European level or, for a particular European country. In particular, it investigates the main factors explaining organic food demand in the South of Italy. Following the Lancaster consumer’s demand theory we assume that consumer’s utility depends on product characteristics instead of the product itself. Thus, consumers will choose the product (organic versus conventional) that possesses the combination of attributes that maximises its utility. Consumer’s choice for organic foods is analysed within the random utility discrete choice model and a bivariate probit model has been specified. The data were collected through a questionnaire conducted in the Italian region of Campania (Naples) in 2003. Findings indicate that economic factors are still factors limiting the growth of organic demand in Europe. Moreover, the consumers’ perceived benefits of organic food (environmental and health) are factors promoting organic food demand. In addition, greater information on organic food products is crucial to expand its demand in the South of Italy because this information will increase the consumer’s organic knowledge. Then, higher organic knowledge will increase the probability to buy organic foods and, to a larger extent, the level of consumption among existing consumers.     

供给侧改革视角下科技保险 “供需双冷”困境及其化解

在供给侧改革背景下,科技保险肩负着为科技创新保驾护航的历史使命。然而,科技保险试点10年来,依然面临需求低迷与供给不足并存的发展困境。其主要根源在于：严重的信息不对称造成市场失灵、“跛行”的财政支持政策不能形成有效激励以及不成熟的行业环境制约。要想走出这一困境,仅仅从需求方着力是远远不够的。科技保险的正外部性和科技保险市场高度的信息不对称,决定了必须从财政支持、产品创新、机制创新、中介培育及信息服务等方面进行供给侧改革。为此,提出应当构建供需并重的差异化财政支持机制、加大与需求侧相匹配的科技保险产品供给、创新科技保险契约模式及运行机制、搭建科技保险中介服务和信息支持平台等建议。     

国家高新区创业资本供求能力评价

从创业资本供给推力、创业资本需求拉力、创业资本供求黏力3个方面选取28个指标,构建国家高新区创业资本供求能力评价指标体系。在此基础上,运用主成分分析法,并利用SPSS17.0对6个争创建世界一流的国家自主创新示范区创业资本供求能力进行评价,发现其能力大小依次为：中关村、深圳、张江、东湖、西安、成都。根据评价结果,就各国家自主创新示范区如何提高创业资本供求能力提出了政策建议。     

Is the cardholder an efficient alarm system to detect credit card incidents?

There is a growing tendency in credit card industry to increase the contribution of the smallest players, the cardholders, in the detection of card incidents. This article examines whether cardholders are efficient at detecting/communicating incidents of theft, loss or fraudulent use of their cards. The analysis focuses on whether they demonstrate enough speed of response to support a risk control subsystem by the issuer. The research follows a completely new approach showing how the issue can be handled by applying the concept of elasticity, a notion just recently exported from economics to the field of statistics by linking it with the reverse hazard rate. The issue is focused on the analysis of the characteristics of the elasticity function of the random variable that measures the delay of cardholders in reporting incidents. This study is illustrated with an application to a real data set of 1069 incidents.     

Cournot Oligopoly Conditions under which Any Horizontal Merger Is Profitable

Findings in economic theory suggest that horizontalmergers involving firms with aggregate market shareless than 50% are unlikely to be motivated by theconsequent reduction in competitivity. The resultsarise because, absent cost efficiencies, quantity-settingfirms in small mergers are impoverished by the merger.We demonstrate that this conclusion is a consequence ofthe strong restrictions imposed on the demand function,and we identify a well-behaved demand function suchthat any set of merging firms benefits from the reductionin competition even when there are no cost efficiencies.     

Market information and channel price structure

An analytical model is developed that considers the effect of demand information, and the precision with which demand forecasts are made, on channel profitability. Different channel price structures such as Stackelberg and Vertically integrated are considered and comparisons are made of the impact of information precision on channel profits under each structure. Other demand factors such as brand substitutability and share of base level demand are also included in the analysis, and the interaction of information and demand effects is examined. An empirical study is carried out using a sample of firms based in Hong Kong and support is found for the model propositions.     

我国旅行社从业人员总量需求趋势实证研究

随着旅游业在我国国民经济中地位的不断提高及旅游业的快速发展,旅游从业人员的数量也要不断增加,旅行社业作为旅游业的主要板块,其从业人员的数量及质量都将对其行业的发展产生重大影响。本文主要借助科学的方法,在占有大量资料的基础上,从实证的角度对我国旅行社未来几年的从业人员的总量进行了预测分析,以为相关部门及院校提供有益的参考。